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News HomeArchivetag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89697632451528108502009-07-03T23:19:37+00:00SplicedFeedstevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04081925492486284973noreply@blogger.comBlogger0125Solving the Peter Principle? One Word: "Darts" [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]pk2009-07-03T16:19:37-07:00http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/solving_the_pet.html
There is a fun new working paper out from some Italian scientists that models the Peter Principle. The principle says, of course, that people climb in an organization until they reach their level of maximum incompetence.
How would that happen? Well, the authors argue it should be expected in any organization where the following two conditions hold:
The best member are rewarded with promotions
Competence in a new position is not highly correlated with competence at a prior level
The authors simulated the preceding in a pyramidal organizational form using a mathematical agent model. Here is the outcome:
Here we show, by means of agent based simulations, that if the [above two conditions] actually hold in a given model of an organization with a hierarchical structure, then not only the "Peter principle" is unavoidable, but it yields in turn a significant reduction of the global efficiency of the organization. [Emphasis mine]
Granted, this shouldn't be surprising news, one would think, to anyone who has spent any time around large organizations. A disproportionate number of the positions always seem filled by people who elicit a WTF? reaction from reasonable-minded observers.
So, do we just live with it? After all, we can hardly get around elevating the best people, and it isn't unreasonable to think that one's experience in a former position doesn't adequately prepare for the new one.
Not necessarily, according to the authors:
...the best strategies to improve, or at least not to diminish, the efficiency of an organization, when one ignores the actual way of competence transmission, are those of promoting an agent at random or of randomly alternating the promotion of the best and the worst members. We think that these results could be useful to guide the management of large real hierarchical systems of different nature and in different fields.
Whoa, it turns out calling someone's promotion "random" is a compliment. Who knew darts could be so handy at promotion time?
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/solving_the_pet.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/InfectiousGreedWhen is a Failure Not a Failure? When It's an Iraq Oil Auction [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]pk2009-07-03T16:00:16-07:00http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/when_is_a_failu.html
The failed Iraq oilfield auctions this week have become a litmus test for Iraq, for oil analysts and for the ever-nervous global oil market. Iraqi officials refuse to see the disappearance of most bidders and the completion of only auction (with a single bidder) as a failure. Instead, they are hawking the crowd-pleasing idea that multinational oil companies are greedy mouth-breathers that balked at the hard bargain being driven by righteous Iraqis who control so much valuable, marginal oil supply.
For their part, of course, oil companies think that the Iraqi oil auctioneers are nuts. The proffered risk/reward premium for exploration, development and production in an unsafe country with minimal infrastructure and maximal political flux was near zero. But in their zealotry to demonstrate resource nationalism to an uneasy electorate, Iraqi officials scared off most sane bidders, making the only successful buyer in this first round a bid backstopped and subsidized by the Chinese government -- and one that still required a huge price concession.
Here is a nice summary snippet from IHS on where this means the sorry process goes from here:
Without Iraq offering a better risk/reward ratio to investors it will have to undertake all investment and development itself—a process that will be slow, laborious, and under-funded, and will result in volumes nowhere near those targeted and years from their hoped-for schedule.
Iraq needs to look not only at the reward side of its offering, however; it can make significant progress on lowering the investor risks. The government needs to direct its attention to passing a national hydrocarbons law in order to lay down a clear legal framework for the deals and give them greater political legitimacy than what is just—effectively—a mere pledge of contract allegiance from the currently serving ministers. This would also lower the political risk in Iraq, as the law in itself would require some form of broader political understanding between the leading factions and thereby to some extent bind much of Iraq's political forces into taking responsibility for long-term hydrocarbon policy.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/when_is_a_failu.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/InfectiousGreedQOTD: Sampling the Future [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]pk2009-07-03T15:05:36-07:00http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/qotd_sampling_t.html
The following innocuous sampling theory comment from Andy Gelman set me thinking in a bunch of dimensions today. The question had to with how to handle statistical analysis when your sample population is the entire population, and Andy's answer is important and instructive:
So, one way of framing the problem is to think of your "entire population" as a sample from a larger population, potentially including future cases.
Precisely right, and a point that many naive hypothesis-generators might keep in mind, whether in financial markets or elsewhere.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/qotd_sampling_t.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/InfectiousGreedFarmworkers: Go to New York City, Young Man [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]pk2009-07-03T14:59:24-07:00http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/farmworkers_go.html
I've been messing about with this tool that tries to compare supply and demand for various jobs by geography throughout the U.S. You have to be careful how you interpret it, as the following chart suggesting farmworkers (and animals (sic.)) should race to New York City and San Francisco shows, but it's still interesting.
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/farmworkers_go.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/InfectiousGreedWatching People Come of Age [Feld Thoughts]Brad Feld2009-07-03T14:38:55-07:00http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/watching-people-come-of-age.html...
One of the most satisfying parts of what I do is getting to work with people over a long period of time, starting early in their careers. It’s one of the things I love about TechStars, but it’s not limited to that as I have many other relationships with young and first time entrepreneurs.
Last night, at Ignite Boulder 5, I had a permagrin on my face as I thought about the amazing job Andrew Hyde was doing. I first met Andrew a few years ago when we started TechStars – he basically volunteered to hang out with a video camera for free all summer to film stuff and learn. He was so hugely helpful that it was easy to bring him on board the TechStars team in year two as the community manager (things like TechStars.TV are Andrew’s creation.)
I attended Ignite Boulder 2 and had a great time. But last night – #5 – just blew me away. 700-ish people in the Boulder Theater, enormous energy, endless laughter and brain stimulation, and just a very good time. Andrew organized a phenomenal show and really shined as the organizer / MC.
But wait, there’s more. Andrew is everywhere in the Boulder startup community while managing to travel all over the world sharing his brand of entrepreneurial passion. I don’t ever think I’ve seen Andrew without a smile on his face, and he’s even gracious when he kicks my butt in ping poing.
It’s been awesome to see Andrew come of age as a key driver of our local entrepreneurial community. Good job man!
http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/watching-people-come-of-age.html/feed0http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/watching-people-come-of-age.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/FeldThoughtsWells Fargo Gives California July 10 Drop-Dead Date [Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed]pk2009-07-03T13:50:13-07:00http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/07/wells_fargo_giv.html
Nice to have a firm date for when California must have a budget and stop shopping IOUs. Here is Wells Fargo from a release yesterday:
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) said today it will accept registered warrants issued by the State of California from its retail and business customers for a limited time. It will begin accepting the registered warrants for deposit on July 2, 2009 and stop accepting them no later than July 10, 2009.
“We’re very disappointed, as are many Californians, that California has taken the unfortunate step of issuing IOUs in lieu of its payments to some businesses and individuals,” said Lisa Stevens, head of Community Banking for Wells Fargo in California. “Wells Fargo has a long history of taking extraordinary measures to help our customers and will accept registered warrants from our customers, but only for a limited time, to allow them time to make other arrangements. We are reluctant to take this step, but are doing so to help our customers who are not at fault and with the expectation that the Legislature and Governor will complete the budget within days. We join all Californians in urging our Legislature and our Governor to take the appropriate steps as soon as possible to resolve this budget crisis.”
[Emphasis mine]
It is deliriously ironic and surreal that it took California to make screwed-up and irresponsible banks look like mature adults.
http://bijansabet.com/post/134875403http://feeds2.feedburner.com/typepad/bijanblogNBC Attacks, Tries To Stomp Out Wimbledon Semifinal Streams* [Silicon Alley Insider]Henry Blodget2009-07-03T10:24:00-07:00http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-nbc-attacks-tries-to-prevent-tennis-fans-from-enjoying-wimbledon-semifinal-streams-2009-7UPDATE: The match is over. It was excellent (live). We won't wreck the outcome for you. But in case you don't want to waste the rest of your afternooon watching the tape-delay on NBC TV, just search for the results anywhere online, turn on the radio, visit a newspaper web site, visit NBC Sports.com (where their headline blares out the winner while the video only shows the same tape delay), or watch any news channel on TV.
EARLIER: Roddick and Murray are in the middle of the fourth set of their riveting Wimbledon semifinal, with Roddick leading 2 sets to 1.
Read the rest of this story »
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-nbc-attacks-tries-to-prevent-tennis-fans-from-enjoying-wimbledon-semifinal-streams-2009-7http://feeds2.feedburner.com/typepad/alleyinsider/silicon_alley_insiderGnip Is Hiring Software Developers [Feld Thoughts]Brad Feld2009-07-03T09:07:11-07:00http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/gnip-is-hiring-software-developers.html...
If you are Boulder-based and fit the qualifications, email Jenny-Lynne Elledge.
http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/gnip-is-hiring-software-developers.html/feed0http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2009/07/gnip-is-hiring-software-developers.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/FeldThoughtsBeing International On July 4th [Mark Peter Davis]Mark Davis2009-07-03T09:06:25-07:00tag:typepad.com,2003:post-6a00e0098c50518833011570b95c13970cTomorrow is the anniversary of America's independence - a great time to be thinking about how to be a better citizen both at home and globally. With that spirit in mind, as of yesterday this blog has become internationalized. I...
Tomorrow is the anniversary of America's independence - a great time to
be thinking about how to be a better citizen both at home and globally.
With that spirit in mind, as of yesterday this blog has become internationalized. I added (per the recommendation of my rockstar intern Wayne) Google translator. If you don't read English well - fear not, you can now read this blog in dozens of languages. Hopefully this content will be able to help entrepreneurs everywhere.
http://www.markpeterdavis.com/getventure/2009/07/being-international-on-july-4th.htmlhttp://feeds2.feedburner.com/GetVenturePrometheus, $10M in Hand, Poised to Deliver Alternative Fuel for Shell Technology Ventures [Xconomy VC/Deals]Gregory T. Huang2009-07-03T08:47:25-07:00http://www.xconomy.com/?p=31760Kirt Montague is the Comeback Kid of the Seattle cleantech community. We saw the fire in his eyes back in March when he rocked the room with a killer presentation on waste-to-energy at Xconomy’s cleantech forum in Seattle. And we see it again now that his company, Redmond, WA-based Prometheus Energy, which produces liquid natural [...]
Kirt Montague is the Comeback Kid of the Seattle cleantech community. We saw the fire in his eyes back in March when he rocked the room with a killer presentation on waste-to-energy at Xconomy’s cleantech forum in Seattle. And we see it again now that his company, Redmond, WA-based Prometheus Energy, which produces liquid natural gas from waste, has just closed $10 million in financing—with another $10 million to come upon reaching certain milestones—from Shell Technology Ventures Fund, which is managed by Netherlands-based Kenda Capital, a division of the Dutch oil giant.
Prometheus Energy, and Montague, have been through some rough patches. The company was founded in 2003 and raised more than $20 million in venture funding through the alternative fuels heyday of 2006. That year, Montague took Prometheus public on London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM). The move didn’t work out, and the company was de-listed in 2008. Prometheus went through layoffs, personnel changes, and slumping revenues. Last September, the assets of the company were acquired by Black River Asset Management, a large private equity firm based in Minnetonka, MN, and San Mateo, CA.
“We’ve hung in there, we’ve weathered the storm,” says Montague (pronounced “Mon-tag”), Prometheus’s co-founder and CEO. “It hasn’t been easy. It’s been painful. But we’re still here, and we’re growing. Having Shell [Technology Ventures and Kenda Capital] close this deal validates a lot of what we’ve done.”
Indeed, it’s a big deal for Prometheus Energy, for Seattle cleantech, and for the future of alternative fuels. It also highlights some broader and more globally important business trends. One is that big oil companies are starting to invest heavily in alternative energy technologies, even in the midst of the recession. Another is that the capital for these deals in the U.S. increasingly is coming from overseas. “You’ve got a situation where the market for this technology is not just domestic, it’s global,” says Michael Butler, CEO of Seattle-based Cascadia Capital, the investment bank that brokered the Prometheus deal. “Kirt went to Shell [Technology Ventures] because of the value they bring.”
Gaining a strategic partner like Shell Technology Ventures appears to be quite …Next Page »