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BA.net feedsburner SeekingAlpha News 16/05/2008
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SeekingAlpha.com
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China: No, But This Time Really Is Different
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Today
is relatively quiet on the China-financial-news front (the SSE
Composite was down 36 bps, but not much else happened), so rather than
discuss the most recent numbers and events and their possible
implications for financial policy, I want to write about something a
tad more theoretical. For the past two months there has been a big buzz about a paper (.pdf) by
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (which I will refer to as R/R)
called “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of
Financial Crises.” As the title implies, the
authors examine the historical evidence of financial crises over a long
time frame in an effort to develop an understanding of the causes and
consequences of financial crises.
As
someone who has been interested for a long time by the history of
international capital flows and financial crises (a big part of my book
The Volatility Machine was an examination of developing
country crises over the past 200 years), it was a dead certainty that I
would read the R/R piece, and sure enough I have just finished it. It
was a great pleasure to see so many references to some of the classic
and obscure books on financial history that I have read so often that I
feel almost as if they were old friends.
2008-05-16T06:52:00-04:00
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis submits: Today
is relatively quiet on the China-financial-news front (the SSE
Composite was down 36 bps, but not much else happened), so rather than
discuss the most recent numbers and events and their possible
implications for financial policy, I want to write about something a
tad more theoretical. For the past two months there has been a big buzz about a paper (.pdf) by
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (which I will refer to as R/R)
called “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of
Financial Crises.” As the title implies, the
authors examine the historical evidence of financial crises over a long
time frame in an effort to develop an understanding of the causes and
consequences of financial crises.
As
someone who has been interested for a long time by the history of
international capital flows and financial crises (a big part of my book
The Volatility Machine was an examination of developing
country crises over the past 200 years), it was a dead certainty that I
would read the R/R piece, and sure enough I have just finished it. It
was a great pleasure to see so many references to some of the classic
and obscure books on financial history that I have read so often that I
feel almost as if they were old friends. Complete Story »
FXI
PGJ
Michael Pettis
-
Buffett Reflects on Great Businesses: Raising Prices
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Warren Buffett regularly points out that a business with pricing power will reign supreme over the long run. He reflected on this theme (among others) in one of his 3 lectures at Notre Dame in 1991:
I’ll try this on the students later: What’s the highest price of a daily newspaper in the United States? [Pause] [This is what he said to the students later: Most of you are familiar with it. The highest priced daily newspaper in the United States, with any circulation at all, is the Daily Racing Form. It sells about 150,000 copies a day, and it has for about 50 years, and it’s either $2.00 or $2.25 (they keep raising prices) and it’s essential. If you’re heading to the racetrack and you’ve got a choice between betting on your wife’s birthday, and Joe’s Little Green Sheet, and the Daily Racing Form, if you’re a serious racing handicapper, you want The Form.
2008-05-16T06:47:40-04:00
Shai Dardashti
Shai Dardashti submits:
Warren Buffett regularly points out that a business with pricing power will reign supreme over the long run. He reflected on this theme (among others) in one of his 3 lectures at Notre Dame in 1991:
I’ll try this on the students later: What’s the highest price of a daily newspaper in the United States? [Pause] [This is what he said to the students later: Most of you are familiar with it. The highest priced daily newspaper in the United States, with any circulation at all, is the Daily Racing Form. It sells about 150,000 copies a day, and it has for about 50 years, and it’s either $2.00 or $2.25 (they keep raising prices) and it’s essential. If you’re heading to the racetrack and you’ve got a choice between betting on your wife’s birthday, and Joe’s Little Green Sheet, and the Daily Racing Form, if you’re a serious racing handicapper, you want The Form.
Complete Story »
BRK.A
BRK.B
Shai Dardashti
-
Agriculture Is Still Growing - Fast Money Recap (5/15/08)
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Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Thursday May 15.
Oil Rolling Over
On oil’s rollover, Tim Seymour discussed Congress’ plan to curtail the buying practices of speculators, but thinks this news will have little effect on oil. With options expiration, there should be selloff in oil, and Seymour cites demand as a large factor. Pete Najarian says oil is being traded like a currency and while it finished flat, the oil services sector was strong. Jeff Macke expected a much bigger drop in oil on Thursday.
2008-05-16T06:46:03-04:00
SA Editor Miriam Metzinger
Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Thursday May 15.
Oil Rolling Over
On oil’s rollover, Tim Seymour discussed Congress’ plan to curtail the buying practices of speculators, but thinks this news will have little effect on oil. With options expiration, there should be selloff in oil, and Seymour cites demand as a large factor. Pete Najarian says oil is being traded like a currency and while it finished flat, the oil services sector was strong. Jeff Macke expected a much bigger drop in oil on Thursday.
Complete Story »
POT
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AGU
BG
DRYS
BNI
KFT
AMLN
ISIS
YHOO
MSFT
RIMM
AAPL
CSCO
JNPR
T
TIF
JCP
KSS
WMT
CVS
TIN
KO
PEP
CLX
TAP
BUD
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DNA
MDRX
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SSL
SA Editor Miriam Metzinger
-
Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp.: An Royalty on Stabilty
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The Forest:
Some Personal Reflections from 20,000 Feet...
2008-05-16T06:42:50-04:00
Shai Dardashti
Shai Dardashti submits:
The Forest:
Some Personal Reflections from 20,000 Feet...
Complete Story »
BRK.A
BRK.B
Shai Dardashti
-
Clear Channel: Are the Banks a Clear Winner?
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Daniel Primack over at PE Hub, in his post sizing up the Clear Channel
(CCU) settlement, said it was difficult to determine if the banks were winners
or losers. Given the failure of the banks to present a united front, as described by Deal Journal,
having John Mack’s top bankers step up to work out a solution was just
about the best outcome the banks could have hoped for.
After going to
court, the banks cannot compare the outcome to just paying the break-up
fee not to do the deal. They traded a lower loss on this debt to
improve their reputations and cap the losses that could have been
enormous if the court case went forward. Yet, it is worth noting that
the court case may have been an exercise in futility for the sponsors
if their damages got capped at $600mn by the courts. If this settlement makes the sponsors give up more on BCE (BCE), then clearly
the banks are winners here.
2008-05-16T06:37:44-04:00
Prince of Wall Street
Prince of Wall Street submits: Daniel Primack over at PE Hub, in his post sizing up the Clear Channel
(CCU) settlement, said it was difficult to determine if the banks were winners
or losers. Given the failure of the banks to present a united front, as described by Deal Journal,
having John Mack’s top bankers step up to work out a solution was just
about the best outcome the banks could have hoped for.
After going to
court, the banks cannot compare the outcome to just paying the break-up
fee not to do the deal. They traded a lower loss on this debt to
improve their reputations and cap the losses that could have been
enormous if the court case went forward. Yet, it is worth noting that
the court case may have been an exercise in futility for the sponsors
if their damages got capped at $600mn by the courts. If this settlement makes the sponsors give up more on BCE (BCE), then clearly
the banks are winners here. Complete Story »
CCU
Prince of Wall Street
-
PE May Get More Rope to Hang Itself
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